RACINE, Wis. — To Mitt Romney, the 10 electoral votes in Wisconsin may be more essential than extra, a critical backup plan if a first-tier battleground state falls out of reach.
Andy Manis for The New York Times
"Mitt Romney seems to believe that all you do is reduce taxes on the rich and they'll drive the economy. That's too simple." LAURIE BOOKSTEIN
Party: Independent
Supporting: President Obama
Location: Milwaukee
Concerned about: The economy
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Andy Manis for The New York Times
"He has let the campaign get away from him. He needs to focus more on jobs and Obama's failures." JIM MORRISON
Party: Independent
Supporting: Mitt Romney
Location: Racine, Wis.
Concerned about: The economy
Seven weeks until the election, with Mr. Romney facing new questions about his ability to gain trust among voters experiencing economic hardships, his campaign is increasingly pointing to Wisconsin as a place where a statewide Republican resurgence could rub off on Mr. Romney.
But President Obama has overtaken Mr. Romney on who would do a better job handling the economy, according to a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll of likely Wisconsin voters. The poll also found that Mr. Obama has a 17-point edge over Mr. Romney when voters are asked if a candidate cares about their needs and problems.
As the president makes his first campaign visit of the year to Wisconsin on Saturday, the poll found that Mr. Obama was the choice of 51 percent to 45 percent for Mr. Romney among likely voters. The six-point lead, which includes those who said they were leaning in one direction or another, marks a slight shift in Mr. Obama's direction since Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin joined the Republican ticket last month.
The findings of the poll, along with the fallout from newly exposed remarks Mr. Romney made at a fund-raiser in which he bluntly suggested that 47 percent of Americans saw themselves as victims who are dependent on the government, offer a window into the challenges confronting his campaign here and other important swing states during the final 48 days of the race.
Rob Jankowski, an independent voter who supported Mr. Obama four years ago but has been disappointed by his economic leadership and disapproves of his health care plan, is among the 3 percent of voters in the survey who say they are still undecided. He said he did not feel loyalty to Mr. Obama simply because he supported him last time, but he said Mr. Romney had not made his case.
"Obama is putting out his plans and his details and being more public on that, but with Romney it's kind of gray," said Mr. Jankowski, 39, speaking in a follow-up interview Tuesday afternoon here in Jefferson Park, as a cool breeze rustled the tree leaves. "I'd like to know more — educate me."
The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. The latest collection of surveys also included Colorado, where Mr. Romney is running nearly even with Mr. Obama, and Virginia, where Mr. Obama has a narrow advantage of four percentage points, both of which are inside the survey's margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for each candidate.
But for Mr. Romney, Wisconsin offers one of the best chances to fight on Mr. Obama's terrain in the Midwest and expand the battleground map. The Romney campaign has redirected some of its money and manpower once intended for Michigan and Pennsylvania to Wisconsin, hoping to create as many paths as possible to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
The importance of Wisconsin was amplified this week when the leading "super PAC" supporting Mr. Romney, Restore Our Future, bought $820,000 in television advertising for the final stretch of the race. The Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee also have stepped up their investments in the state, underscoring the urgency for Mr. Romney to try and change the landscape of the race.
Yet the poll found that Republicans have formidable challenges in Wisconsin, with Mr. Obama expanding his lead among women and remaining far more competitive among men than in many battleground states. The poll found that 55 percent of women support Mr. Obama and 41 percent prefer Mr. Romney, but among men there is only a two percentage point difference between the candidates.
"I think Obama has done a much better job than anyone realizes," said Laurie Bookstein, 62, an independent voter in Milwaukee, speaking in a follow-up interview. "I think Obama's honesty and integrity in creating a better economy is important to the country as a whole."
The degree to which Wisconsin will develop as a top-tier battleground state depends on how the opening waves of advertising by candidates and outside groups settle in.
The airwaves here were relatively quiet until last week. Wisconsin has become more appealing to Mr. Romney out of necessity, aides said, with his campaign worried about its trajectory in Ohio and Virginia.
By JEFF ZELENY and MARJORIE CONNELLY 19 Sep, 2012
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Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/us/politics/obama-holds-edge-over-romney-in-wisconsin-poll-shows.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
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